The latest market news, commentary and strategy by Adrian Rowney
5 Things that Grabbed my Attention
1. This is HISTORIC: 5 new countries have been accepted into the BRICS which means the trading bloc will account for 80% of the world's OIL production....The WEST is in complete denial of the significance of what just transpired.
2. ETPMAG has once again traded up to the big resistance level on the chart...One of these days it is going to bust through and not look back. BUY
3. Second tier Aussie lender Judo Capital Holdings (JDO) fell 19% to hit a fresh all time low....There is no need to be in financials.
4. Corelogic is reporting around a 20% increase in supply of new homes hitting the market in Sydney and Melbourne....Will cashed up migrants be enough to support the property market or are we headed for a decent pullback?
5. Whitehaven (WHC) announced a NPAT of $2.7bn and 42c fully franked dividend (Ex on 31st Aug)....The stock dipped 5% as they are suspending its share buyback to perhaps make a play for BHP's coking coal assets.....BUY
ASX Market Update
ASX 200 up 33 points to 7182
Costa Group (CGC) shares fell 10% after announcing they are going to take a $30mil hit due to a deterioration in the outlook for their later season citrus crop and a softening of demand for tomatoes....I am a bit suss on the update. They gave us no details about what is happening on the citrus farms and then expect us to believe that Aussies have eased up on eating tomatoes. Seriously???? And it was only recently they were telling us what an amazing growing season they were having....
I think management are stitching up shareholders by talking things down, which in turn will make it much easier for the Wall Street private equity firm to come in and mop up CGC on the cheap...The pullback has created a good short term trading opportunity. BUY
These long dated bonds were always going to tank...I bet the bankers that put deals like this together then went short after offloading them to suckers.
Interest rates up --- bonds prices down.— Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) August 22, 2023
$1 million invested in this Apple AAPL bond is now worth $600k, duration risk is on stage here. Now think of all those mortgage-backed securities on bank balance sheets. pic.twitter.com/WzqS73ygkO
The Day Ahead
- Our SPI is down 69 points
- Bitcoin up 2.7% to $26,545
Movements affecting our resource stocks today (USD)
- BHP in the US down 2.8%
- Newmont down 0.33%
- Gold down 0.17% to $1944
- Paper Silver down 0.93% to $24.16
- Platinum up 0.3% to $941
- Copper down 1% to $3.76
- Brent Crude FLAT @ $83.12
- Iron ore down 1.1% to $109.90
Asian Market Update
Japan up 0.87%, China up 0.12% and Hong Kong rallied 2%
Most analysts are completely baffled by the recent strong gains in COKING COAL and IRON ORE (key ingredients to make steel)....but it has got me thinking....perhaps the strength is due to Xi Man ordering his steel makers to crank things up to supply a 5 fold increase in military spending - I'm talking extra ships, tanks, subs, weapons, fighter jets and military bases; all this stuff is commodity intensive....pure speculation on my behalf, but it would be a way to give the economy a TRILLION dollar boost and get the unemployed youth off the video games and into jobs.
⚡️Most commodities futures open up in #China on Thursday.#IronOre rises by 1% to 826 yuan, refreshing recent high. #Steel rebars and HRCs are up 0.2%.#Zinc +1.1%, #nickel +0.9%, #copper +0.6. #Tin -0.5%, #aluminum -0.13%.
Energy futures down. Crude oil drops 1.7% in INE. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/XhILkgC0BP
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) August 24, 2023
Global Market Update
DOW down 373 points to 34,009
Discount retailer Dollar Tree fell 12% after the CEO downgraded future sales expectations and painted a bit of an ugly picture for the US economy.....RED FLAGS are popping up all over the joint.
Brits up 0.18%, Germans off 0.68% and Frenchies off 0.44%
I predicted this would happen quit a while ago - now it isn't because I hold some kind of special intellectual powers, it was because I looked back into history and found out who gets hit the hardest with high inflation....I promise you that Central Bankers knew this was coming when they digitally printed obscene amounts of money - they are just playing dumb.