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Down but not out

Posted on August 4, 2022

The world is going to need an incredible amount of Aluminum that is in tight supply….

Alumina (AWC) is probably the best way to get exposure, and look….the stock is back to a long term support level of $1.50!

Here is some very recent commentary from the CEO of Alumina, Mike Ferraro:

“We believe the medium-term outlook for the alumina market is positive.  The anticipated growth in aluminium metal consumption driven by de-carbonisation is favourable for the alumina industry.  Over the next five years, the expected and potential increase in primary aluminium production is 6.3 million tonnes per annum outside China.  This would require around 12 million tonnes per annum of extra alumina.  It is questionable, given the current status of refinery expansion projects outside China, whether 12 million tonnes could be brought into operation within five years”.

“These fundamentals for the medium term reinforce the value of already established alumina assets with ready access to bauxite”.

Bugger all inventories means the stage is set for an explosive move higher in prices.  It is impossible to reconcile the 40% collapse in Aluminum futures with these significantly low levels of inventories.

Buy last sale $1.51 …

 

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