The Good Morning Report – 14th Feb

1. US stocks, bonds and metals sold off as higher than expected inflation was reported overnight….OIL went up, but OIL stocks got crunched – go figure!

2. WESTERN investors selling or shorting GOLD & SILVER as they pile into the perceived safety of the USD is absurd to me…US debt is ballooning!….It’s an absolute GIFT for China though.

2. ANZ announced profitability is tracking ahead of expectations on low bad debts and solid loan growth….I guess no one is getting squeezed while unemployment is low and property and rent prices are headed north….And to think – I’m the crazy one for predicting the RBA has still got plenty of rate rises to come. I maintain my AVOID on financials.

3. James Hardie (JHX) lifted prices of fibre cement cladding products in Australia & Asia by 14% in the December quarter….SEEK just upped prices by 13%…..Yet the experts tell us inflation is in free fall in Australia….I think a line from George Orwell’s 1984 book is perfect for the situation we are in: ‘The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command”.

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5. Seven West Media (SWM) fell 10% on yet another crook half year update. The Metro TV market declined a further 13%….SWM always looks cheap on paper, but I have never had an interest in it. People are switching off the MSM in numbers – all that gaslighting over COVID, the wokeness, the climate change, the fake news etc is taking it’s toll….so I’ll maintain my AVOID rating…..SWM has tanked 50% over the past 12 months.

ASX 200 down 11 points to 7603

The SEEK (SEK) results looked pretty ordinary to me and I’m very surprised the stock only closed 4.5% lower considering jobs advertisements have fallen in a big way. Imagine paying over 50 times earnings for a set of numbers shown below….Now don’t get me wrong – SEK is a tremendous business with basically a monopoly position – but 50 times earnings while the business is in decline is very rich indeed.

Even after jacking up the price of job ads by 13%, it has not nearly been enough to cover volumes falling by a whopping 20%….I maintain my AVOID on the stock due to their high valuation.

Cocoa has had a huge run over the past 12 months. It’s been on the back of tighter supplies from important growing nations such as the Ivory Coast and Ghana.…Higher chocolate prices are on the way.

  • SPI is down 105 points
  • Bitcoin down 1.8% to $49,001
  • BHP in US down 2.7%
  • Newmont in US down 5.26%
  • RIO in London down 2.5%

Movements affecting our resource stocks today (USD)

  • Gold down 1.3% to $2004
  • Paper Silver down 3.19% to $22.04
  • Platinum down 2.2% to $8.77
  • Copper down 0.55% to $3.70
  • Brent Crude up 0.8% to $82.66

Japan up 2.89%, China & Hong Kong SHUT

Japanese stocks hit the highest level since 1990 as weakness in the YEN (good for offshore earners) and negative interest rates (it’s true the Bank of Japan has it set at minus 0.1%) have been making stocks look attractive Vs cash in the bank.

DOW down 743 to 38053

Owning a car is becoming a luxury…

Germany down 0.92%, Brits off 0.81% and Frenchies fell 0.84%

Tragic event yesterday in Turkey as a huge GOLD mine collapsed….The mine is owned by SSR Mining – stock has crashed 57%…..SSR Mining is listed on the ASX, Toronto and NASDAQ.

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