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The Good Morning Report

Posted on February 17, 2023

The latest market news, commentary and strategy by Adrian Rowney 

5 Things that Grabbed my Attention

1.  Newcrest (NCM) has formally rejected Newmont's takeover proposal; not sure why it took them this long!....I predict Newmont will be back with a sweetened deal as they need Newcrest's long life mines and reserves. NCM is a BUY

2. Sonic HealthCare (SHL) - doctors are sending their customers off to get every test under the sun done these days, so SHL will continue to cream it for years to come. BUY.

3. NSW government has released its demands that coal miners sell a certain percentage of output to them @ $125 per ton...YanCoal (YAL) announced it has to hand over 310,000 tons per quarter - not the end of the world. I maintain my BUY.

4.  WhiteHaven (WHC) made a whopping $1.7bn net profit over the past 6 months and is now sitting on cash of $2.5bn - yet the directors decided to only pay a 32c dividend which works out at around $274 mil - they could have comfortably paid a $1.00 dividend....I hope they are keeping this mega pot of cash to make a bid for BHP's remaining coal assets that are up for sale. BUY

5. New Hope (NHC) said they have been fielding  a bunch of enquiries for its thermal coal from China but does not have any spare to sell....I doubt prices are going to fall further - and wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce. BUY

ASX Market Update

ASX 200 up 58 points to 7410

Our market recovered a bit of the previous sessions losses as there was a bit of excitement that the RBA may ease up on the rate hikes as 11,500 Aussies got sacked last month....Kind of perverse isn't it - that bad news can sometimes be treated as a godsend by investors.

Onto the big movers: Sonic (SHL) & packaging company Orora (ORA)  surged 14% each on better than expected results/outlooks,  while AMP posted yet another stinker - sending its stock down 13%. 

Random Observation

Classic response...

#For those that don't know - Charlie is Warren Buffet's right hand man.

The Day Ahead

Reporting today: BBN, QBE, ING, WBC

  • Our SPI is down 11 points
  • Bitcoin up 2.2% to $24,756

Movements affecting our resource stocks today (USD)

  • BHP in the US up 0.67%
  • Gold FLAT @ $1847
  • Paper Silver FLAT @ $21.60
  • Copper up 2.87% to $4.12
  • Brent Crude down 0.82% to $84.65
  • Iron ore up 0.9% to $124.74

Asian Market Update

Hong Kong up 0.84%, China down 0.96% and Japan added 0.71%

Bouncing back quickly...hard not to be BULLISH energy as China opens back up.

Global Market Update

US Market

DOW down 431 points to 33,696

US stocks rolled over as the Producer Price Index (measure of wholesale prices) came in hotter than expected....This would indicate that inflation is getting really sticky, so more interest rate rises are coming.

European Markets

Brits up 0.18%, Germans added 0.18% and Frenchies put on 0.89%

The FRENCH stock market called the CAC, rallied to an all time high overnight as a number of large caps reported better than expected earnings.

Key Market Summary

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Without limiting the generality of the above paragraph no person, persons or organisation should invest monies or take action on the reliance of the material contained in this post, but instead should satisfy themselves independently (whether by expert advice or otherwise) of the appropriateness of any such action. Unless otherwise stated the information presented is not a recommendation to invest in any investments, securities or financial products.

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