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The Good Morning Report

Posted on October 3, 2023

The latest market news, commentary and strategy by Adrian Rowney 

5 Things that Grabbed my Attention

1. Our SPI is pointing to a 107 point sell off this morning on the ASX 200....Bonds & metals dropped as WESTERN investors pour into the perceived safety of the USD....Doubt we will see any joy for us today. 

2.  Michele Bullocks has her first meeting as RBA chair today...it is expected interest rates will be kept on HOLD, but you never know as she may want to tackle inflation.

3. Insurance premiums for EVs have now surged past petrol cars in the UK....EVs are toxic little suckers so BUYER beware.

4. JP Morgan has moved all its eligible PLATINUM to the registered category which will only partially back the mega SHORT positions on the COMEX....BUY ETPMPT

5.  A Wells Fargo executive jumped out the 14th floor window in the US - he was in charge of RISK....Big banking crisis is coming - will be one for the ages.

ASX Market Update

ASX 200 down 15 points to 7033

It was a fairly quiet session on our market as it was a public holiday in QLD and NSW....We did see ETPMAG fall 4.73% despite SILVER in AUD only showing a fall of 1%....You see it is all about the time frame - when ETPMAG last traded on Friday, $AUD SILVER was around $35.76...by the time ETPMAG opened up on Monday, AUD SILVER was trading around $34.09 or down 4.67%....So don't worry - the price action matches up.....One thing though - on Friday Night there was a whopping 118K futures contracts of SILVER traded on the COMEX or the equivalent of 590 million ounces and 24K options contracts traded for another exposure of 120 million ounces.... The grand total of 710 million ounces works out at around 19 times the amount of registered SILVER available in the COMEX vaults! How is naked shorting of this magnitude even legal?!!? LOL!!

5000 ounces per 1 SILVER FUTURES contract = 590,000,000 ounces traded.

Options over SILVER amounted to 24K contracts, so that's another 120,000,000 ounces.

Yet only 37 million registered ounces backs the COMEX.

Where are the regulators?....Well meet Gary Gensler who has been positioned as the top cop on Wall Street (head of SEC) - he was a former big time BANKER at Goldman Sachs...Manipulation on the PRECIOUS METALS markets has been rampant for years, but their party is soon coming to an end as this is the first time in modern history that physical demand is going to overwhelm available supply....FIREWORKS are coming!!

Random Observation

Chaos in the meat trade

On one hand we have international LIVE CATTLE FUTURES trading at record highs, but on the other, Aussie domestic prices have collapsed. We also see meat prices at the supermarket/ butcher that are sky high but prices at the farmgate have hit rock bottom.

I got a good rundown about this crazy situation on Friday from a very experienced farmer - high feed prices (caused by previous years floods), surging cost of diesel, skills shortages and BOM weather predictions have all contributed into creating this perfect storm....and...lower competition in the abattoir game plus continued inflation is likely to see elevated meat prices for consumers.

As for Australian Agriculture (AAC), I am maintaining my BULLISH view because they sell into the international market (export wagyu to Japan) and the stock is trading at a 50% discount to NTA...The current market value of AAC is now far cheaper than the land value of the company during the height of the drought! BUY last sale $1.32

The Day Ahead

  • Our SPI is down 107 points
  • Bitcoin up 2.63% to $27,805

Movements affecting our resource stocks today (USD)

  • BHP in the US down 2%
  • Newmont down 3.94%
  • Gold down 1.09% to $18.45
  • Paper Silver down 4.78% to $21.35
  • Platinum down 2.5% to $888
  • Copper down 2.5% to $3.64
  • Brent Crude down 1.89% to $90.46

Asian Market Update

China & Hong Kong SHUT, Japan off 0.31%

Chinese markets are closed for the GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAY.

Global Market Update

US Market

DOW down 74 points to 33,433

This is hilarious - make sure you click on it.

For a bit of background, Matt is referring to this case....

What are the odds that Bob's wife sticks around if he's found guilty?

European Markets

Germans off 0.91%, Brits fell 1.28% and Frenchies dropped 0.94%

EU manufacturing continued it's sharp decline - without cheap and plentiful RUSSIAN energy, the deindustrialization of Europe will be ongoing....Seeing EU sign long-term contracts with the US, for what will be very expensive LNG, is pure insanity.

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