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The Good Morning Report

Posted on October 6, 2023

The latest market news, commentary and strategy by Adrian Rowney 

5 Things that Grabbed my Attention

1.German PMI Construction Index just fell to the lowest level EVER.

2. Switzerland is banning people from using their electric cars when blackouts hit this winter.....It's just one big woke comedy festival now.

3. Newcrest (NCM) announced a US$1.10 special dividend for shareholders. It goes EX on the 18th of October, means you have to own it by the 17th at the latest to get it.....BUY

4. Aussie rental vacancy rate just hit a fresh record low and likely to get worse as Albo's economic replacements fly in from around the world....the news is a very supportive factor for our property market, but also inflationary - so rates are headed higher.

5. Metro Bank shares tanked in the UK after being forced into an emergency capital raising...worldwide, banks have got black holes to fill so we should see a flood of dilutive raisings coming up....AVOID BANKS

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ASX Market Update

ASX 200 up 35 points to 6925

Our market closed higher thanks to the positive lead from Wall Street, but it didn't seem like there was a whole lot of conviction in the buying.

Lithium stocks were on the nose again after JP Morgan warned prices are likely to fall 10-40%  as the market will be oversupplied until 2030....

I'll leave you with these two things to consider:

  • It's a safe bet that JP Morgan has already been hired by some of the giant autos to hunt down investment opportunities in the LITHIUM sector...So how can you trust anything they say?
  • Why is Gina Rinehart (Australia's mining GOAT) currently investing heavily in the sector if the fundamentals are that terrible???

Random Observation

Always follow the money...this is an absolute beauty for that!

The Day Ahead

  • Our SPI is up 5 points
  • Bitcoin down 0.5% to $27,387

Movements affecting our resource stocks today (USD)

  • BHP in the US up 0.5%
  • Newmont added 2.6%
  • Gold FLAT @ $1834
  • Paper Silver down 0.15% to $21.15
  • Platinum down 0.86% to $866
  • Copper down 0.6% to $3.56
  • Brent Crude down 1.78% to $84.27

Asian Market Update

Hong Kong FLAT, China SHUT, Japan up 1.8%

This is an awesome bit of infrastructure for Indonesia and definitely needed - I hope Xi Man links other cities for them....The road trip from Jakarta to Bandung is one of the craziest on earth - you'd be doing well if you don't have at least 10 near death experiences on the journey!

 

And should Hollywood ever be looking for stunt BUS drivers, they need to go check out the West Javanese talent which is in plentiful supply - these dudes are simply incredible!! Full respect

Global Market Update

US Market

DOW down 9 points to 33,119

Whilst I predicted the giant BOND market collapse, I didn't predict WESTERN investors would continue to pile money into this losing trade. I thought the money was going to gush into PRECIOUS METALS - eventually it will.

European Markets

Germans down 0.2%, Brits up 0.53% and Frenchies FLAT

Market didn't give a stuff about the black hole @ Metro Bank with UK stocks closing higher....Man Oh Man this price action reminds me of what it was like before the GFC....A broader banking crisis is coming and I'm pretty certain of that. 

Key Market Summary

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