The Good Morning Report – 8 November

5 Things that Grabbed my Attention

1. RBA increased rates to 4.35% with Bullocks leaving the door open for more hikes in the future if inflation doesn't fall.

2. Newcrest (NCM) shares have been converted over to Newmont (NEM) with holdings now showing up in accounts.  1 NCM share became 0.4 NEM. So if you had 1000 shares in NCM, you now have 400 NEM. 

3. China continues to SELL US government bonds with its holdings now falling to a 14 year low.

4. There has been some large divergence in the prices of commodities - the biggest surprise packet for me is Iron Ore which is up 42% over the past 12 months.

5. Lithium miners continue to get hit on the ASX as the battery mineral was sold off again in Chinese trade. Lithium has now plunged over 72%....Hard to know when the selling stops, although the giant miner Albemarle claims that inventories are now low and  battery manufacturers are buying as they need it rather than building any meaningful stockpiles....Put it this way - I wouldn't want to be short! (PLS short interest is now 17%)

ASX Market Update

ASX 200 down 20 points to 6997

Banks gave up the previous sessions gains after the RBA increased rates by 0.25% to a 12 year high of 4.35%.....WBC fell 2.69%, ANZ & NAB both dipped 1%.

"Now Shelley, at the end of your rate hike press conference, I want you to tell all Austwalians that, that one was for the VOICE".

Random Observation

In Australia it's the ABS....

Do you wonder why the economy doesn’t feel as good as government statistics say it is? Maybe it is because the BLS manipulates the statistics. https://t.co/EYaO8w2JuQ

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) November 6, 2023

The Day Ahead

Not going to be a good day for us with energy and other commodities selling off on weaker Chinese export data - money flowed into the perceived safety of the USD.

• Our SPI is down 2 points
• Bitcoin up 1.3% to $35,498

Movements affecting our resource stocks today (USD)

• BHP in the US down 2.4%
• Newmont down 2.9%
• Gold 0.68% to $1975
• Paper Silver down 2.36% to $22.69
• Platinum down 2% to $898
• Copper down 0.89% to $3.68
• Brent Crude down 4.14% to $81.63
• Iron ore down 1.2% to $122.30

Asian Market Update

Japan down 1.34%, China FLAT, Hong Kong off 1.65%

Lithium futures getting smoked in China...

#China's battery-grade #lithium carbonate price fell for 13th straight day to hit new low in two years.

Benchmark lithium carbonate futures in Guangzhou tumbled up to 5% to hit new record low.https://t.co/haGgRmRP6L pic.twitter.com/ukz9gJotNx

— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) November 7, 2023

Global Market Update

US Market

DOW up 56 points to 34,152

US tech stocks rallied again as heavy selling in OIL and other commodities got the market excited about the prospects of lower inflation and potential interest rate cuts....Somehow I don't think it is going to be that easy.